A survey released today shows Republican Donald Trump with a healthy nine percentage point lead over Democrat Joe Biden among likely Texas 2024 presidential election voters. Trump owes a substantial portion of this lead (4 percentage points more than his margin of victory over Biden in 2020) to the strong support he is receiving from the Lone Star State's Latino voters.

A survey conducted between January 11 and January 24 by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs among likely November 2024 Texas voters found 49% intending to vote for Trump and 40% for Biden, with 4% preferring minor party candidates and 7% undecided. 

Trump's lead among white voters (57% vs. 33%) and Biden's lead among Black voters (77% vs. 14%) were relatively similar to those in 2020. Trump's 47% to 41% advantage over Biden among Latino voters however represents a stark shift from 2020 when Biden defeated Trump among Texas Latinos by a 17 percentage point margin.

Mucho ruido y pocas nueces: por qué será imposible proscribir a Trump

Today, more Texas Latino voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden (64%) than an unfavorable opinion of Trump (52%), and, more importantly, 39% of Latino of voters have a very favorable opinion of Trump compared to only 19% who have a very favorable opinion of Biden.

LPO

Trump also bests Biden among several key demographics within the Latino electorate, with especially strong support among Latino men, Latinos without college degrees, Latinos who are born-again Christians, and Latinos who live in suburban and rural areas of the state.

Trump's lead over Biden (47% to 41%) among Latino voters represents a radical change from 2020, when Biden won that decisive battle by a 17-point margin.

Trump holds a notable advantage over Biden among Latino men (55% vs. 40%) while Biden holds a narrow advantage over Trump among Latino women (44% vs. 40%).

Trump's vote intention among Latinos whose highest level of educational attainment is a high school degree or less is significantly greater than that of Biden (62% vs. 30%). In contrast, Biden has a higher vote intention among Latinos whose highest level of educational attainment is a two-year degree or some college (51% vs. 37%) and a four-year degree or post-graduate degree (46% vs. 37%).

Among Latinos who are born-again Christians, Trump holds a more than three-to-one, 68% to 19%, lead over Biden in vote intention, while Biden leads Trump 50% to 39% among Latinos who are not born-again Christians.

Trump and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, last November.

AP

Biden holds a significant advantage in vote intention over Trump (57% vs. 32%) among Latinos who report that they live in an urban area. In contrast, Trump holds an advantage in vote intention among Latinos who report they live in a suburban area (50% vs. 35%) and a significant advantage among Latinos who report that they live in a town or rural area (68% vs. 26%).

One of the reasons for Biden's weak support among Texas Latino likely voters is the Biden Administration's visible and vocal opposition to efforts by Texas Governor Greg Abbott to secure the Texas border with Mexico and to reduce the flow of undocumented immigrants into the state along with Biden's hostile opposition to Texas's ban on most abortions.

Trump aplasta a DeSantis en Texas con un apoyo abrumador de los latinos

Texas Latino likely voters are more likely to support than oppose two of Governor Greg Abbott's border security/immigration policies, policies that are strongly opposed by the Biden Administration and Democratic Party elected officials. For example, 60% of Texas Latino likely voters support (40% strongly) the Texas policy of spending $3 billion in Texas tax dollars annually on border security, compared to 40% of Texas Latino likely voters oppose this policy (22% strongly). And, 57% of Texas Latino likely voters support (49% strongly) the 2023 Texas state law that allows Texas police to arrest and deport undocumented immigrants, a policy that is opposed by 43% of Texas Latinos (33% strongly).

Today more Latino voters in Texas have an unfavorable opinion of Biden (64%) than an unfavorable opinion of Trump (52%). More important: 39% of Latino voters have a very favorable opinion of Trump and only 19% have a very favorable opinion of Biden.

A substantial minority of Texas Latino likely voters also support Texas's state-level ban on all abortions (unless the mother's life is at risk). More than two out of five (43%) of these Latinos support this abortion ban, a ban that is vehemently opposed by President Biden and national Democrats.

While Trump enjoys a narrow advantage over Biden among likely Texas Latino voters today, there is still time over the course of the next nine months for Biden to gain support among Latinos and for Trump to lose it. That said, Biden's current difficulties among Texas Latinos make any hope of a Biden victory in Texas a longshot, and also suggest that Biden's ability to win the crucial swing states of Arizona and Nevada (where one in five voters is Latino) could be threatened if Latino voters in those two battleground states follow trend among Latino voters in Texas and shift their support to Trump.