Armando Briquet is a Venezuelan lawyer with a vast political career and experiences in electoral campaigns throughout Latin American. Former campaign manager of Henrique Capriles, and a staunch opponent of Chavismo, at 53 Briquet is now based in Miami and works for the private sector, along with Argentine businessman Sergio Roitberg. Although he considers himself far from politics, he is very well informed and knows like few others the importance of the Latino vote. In an exclusive dialogue with LPO, Briquet spoke about the 2024 presidential election, the antagonistic role that Florida plays for Republicans and Democrats in the elections and the Biden administration's relationship with the Venezuelan opposition.

What are the important conductors in campaign strategies regarding the Latino vote?

Part of the problems when it comes to understanding North American politics is that it works with absolutely different codes. In our countries, it is one vote wherever you are and the majority of votes coincidentally generate a president of the republic. The fact that this prominent fact does not occur in this way already generates an important problem when it comes to analyzing and understanding the politics of the United States. The states and the segments in each state begin to have an extremely important weight in politics. So, there comes a difficult moment for us, in my opinion, because we are in a new country, we have to know it, and it is very heterogeneous and has different weights.

Everything indicates that the United States will experience the Biden versus Trump rematch in 2024. What do you think?

As an immigrant, I find what happens in recent elections in the United States very curious. In a world that is crying out for change, there is no ideological pendulum swinging the elections and that is perhaps connected to Latin American. The one winning is the challenger and the government is losing. Today you could not say like a few years ago, a wave of left-wing voters or a wave of right-wing voters. No, it is a huge wave of change and is perhaps similar to the wave that also existed in 2008 and was embodied very well by Obama. One more wave of change and less ideological. So, if that pendulum of change is here, it is curious that this country has frozen in time.

Why do you say so?

That the Obama government, which reincarnated change, has left as its candidate the person he had defeated eight years earlier, who was Hillary Clinton and represented a political class of the past. And that later, from there, Obama's vice-president, who had been a candidate in the last century, this demonstrates the entrenchment of a class that wants to embody a change but does not conceive of the way to do it. What is the other side of that? A person like Trump, who takes over - in a good or bad way, each will say it - the Republican Party and who has marked Republican politics in recent years. The party is divided in two: Trumpists and non-Trumpists, with him as the epicenter. And this has the consequence that, in my opinion, the Trump who wins the presidency only beats Hillary Clinton: another democrat would have beaten him. And in 2020, President Biden wins against Trump: with any other Republican candidate, Biden would not have won that election. So people end up choosing between two options that they would not have wanted. We are eleven months away from the new election, there is an immense level of uncertainty and sometimes yo do not know if the Democrats are really going to go with Biden. And on the other side, you have a debate cycle, Trump is not there and the fight is over who is second.

"Fuimos la democracia más antigua y hoy somos la más esclerótica"

Why can't so many Republican candidates displace Trump or break the strong leadership he has over the party?

Yes, there's Nikki Haley, we will see... I think she has managed to tie down sectors of power. It is interesting, because on the one hand she has managed to demonstrate that she is the one who could do best in the general election and that has given her strength. At the same time, she has obtained the capital, the money. Now she must show that she is solid. Four years ago, everyone thought that Jeb Bush was going to win and he couldn't stand two rings with Trump. She seems to have the skills, she has the experience, she has managed different fronts and she also seems to have the firm arm that is needed, she has the resources and can endure. It's interesting, but it doesn't stop growing either.

When you say that power factors are accompanying Haley, who do you refer to?

Especially Koch brothers, but the great trust for financing Republican politics is there, it migrated towards Haley and we see how DeSantis remains above her, but we also see how he failed to be a mini-Trump. Because at the end of the day most of the people say "between Trump and a mini-Trump, I choose a Trump." Trump has remained because he has managed to impose the agenda and the discussion. He has made people wonder whose side they are on and not what everyone is saying. As long as the discussion is around him, that is not going to change. Since heis in the permanent conversation, he has undoubtedly managed to set the agenda.

That Obama left as a candidate the person he had defeated 8 years earlier, and later his vice-president emerged as his heir, demonstrates the entrenchment of a class that wants to embody a change but does not conceive of the way to do it.

What importance do you give to voting in Florida this time?

That is another difficulty that we Latinos have when it comes to understanding this election. In addition to the system and the diversity of the electorate, the third difficulty for many of us is our point of connection. The common thing for us is that Florida is the connection point with the United States, because Florida is very powerful, increasingly powerful, a city like Miami that is thriving, you see, there is exponential growth not only in prices but in everything. There is Messi and a number of things that make this city once again a benchmark and more so that the city in the south becomes an important city in the entire country. And it is our entry point to a large extent. Now, in the calculations of the electoral system, the Republican victory necessarily passes through Florida, but the Democrats have shown that they can reach the presidency without Florida. Since this is our point and what permeates and involves us the most, we do not realize that there are other things that are happening in the rest of the country.

In the midterms, Biden retained the Senate thanks to states like Arizona and Nevada, where the Latino weight is also growing.

He went much better than expected. That is the other calculation that I imagine exists in the democratic world, and it is the hope of the democratic world. I have no position because I am not American, but I think that the hope is to see that the party can be better than the president and his management can be. And it showed it, as with other names that were not directly linked to him, he did much better than expected. This makes we think that there may or may not be a last-minute move, that there is no need for that move and that you can still win with it.

AP

From Obama, and until now, the Latino vote only grew. How would you describe the change in the Latino vote?

Well, the world changed, relationships changed and so did the coexistence of Latinos in the United States. That world in which we watched television sitting on a couch and as a family we received the news in Spanish and we wanted to find out about it exclusively through the Latin media is no longer like that and today we have the third generation born here. That is part of a radical and important change. The entire southwest of the United States has grown with a Latino vote as well, people have begun to migrate within the migratory clubs, this is a state that has a better life, another that has a worse life, depending on the professions, depending on the jobs, depending on the costs, especially nowadays that you can live anywhere and work in another place. All of this produces a displacement and a new integration at the same time. So it's much harder to read and cut by nationality. It is not possible to say that Venezuelans vote in such a way and want such a thing. That's not true. There is no such thing as Venezuelans, neither in Venezuela nor here, nor among Argentinians nor among Puerto Ricans.

It's a permanent mistake.

It is a mistake. We have to understand it geographically, by interests and by where each person is moving and that is becoming much more mixed. So I think that's part of the challenge, whoever manages to connect with that different world wins. In the last election there was a very interesting signal with that Twitch game by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, where she came to play Twich and there were more people watching it live than had seen the most important spot of Biden campaign. The gaming industry has become one of the major industries; it moved more money last year than cinema and music combined. Why is that industry exploding? Because the people are there. Ultimately, the great message in my opinion is that you have to go where the people are.

The common thing for us is that Florida is the connection point with the United States. In the calculations of the electoral system, the Republican victory necessarily passes through Florida, but the Democrats have shown that they can become president without Florida.

You say that forces traditional political leaders to adapt.

Of course, that leader who thinks he is going to say today "I'll wait for you in the park," and everyone is going to gather to applaud him, exists less every day, even in our countries he/she exists less. On the other hand, the leader who manages to go where the people are connects more. For some reason, a spot in the Super Bowl is the most expensive in the world and not in the news. Nobody is interested in the news. Why? Because people are not there, they are having fun, connecting and doing something else. So, the point is how you as a politician manage to reconnect there. It seems that these two old structures are not being reconnected there, but that is where a world of change is moving, and this country is going to experience it sooner rather than later. Even if we reach the Biden-Trump scenario, it seems to be the last one in this cycle. I do not think this cycle will continue with these names, although it has been difficult for both parties to grow, or in a third party. We have to see what happens now with Kennedy Jr. The system is not easy, but one of the big mistakes is thinking that the future will always behave like the past.

"Trump está expandiendo su base electoral entre los latinos. No paramos de crecer desde el 2020"

Biden seeks to counter his own age with a Latino team of very young people, who are between 35 and 50 years old. But Trump seems to connect directly with the Latino electorate.

I think that to some extent the immigrant likes the doors to be closed. After they came in, everything seems nice. I think that deep down, that anti-immigration speech of Trump resonated positively among immigrants who already feel more American and have lost connections with their country, symbolic, emotional or economic.

And they want to leave that behind.

They want to leave that behind, they want to break to some extent, and on that personal journey, Trump's speech resonated positively, as it sounded negatively in others. In my case, it resonated negatively. Here I do have a very clear position, especially as a Venezuelan. The number of Venezuelans, and the conditions they are entering, hurts me, it touches me, but I do not feel that there is a clear conscience regarding this and not everyone is touched. Then, of course, the republican voices are also much stronger in relation to what is happening in our countries, the fight against communism, the fight against the left, which also makes it gain followers in those countries.

Trump's anti-immigration speech resonated positively among immigrants who already feel more American and have lost emotional connection with their country. They want to leave that behind, they want to break to some extent, and on that personal journey, Trump's speech resonated.

However, you say that Florida is not enough to define the name of the next president.

It is not the focus of the election. The last election could have been, it was the focus until the re-election of the senators. I have this feeling hat Florida is not in the Democratic calculations at this time and that they are looking for other areas to grow. Here, too, the role of money is very important not only because of how expensive the choice is, but also because of where you invest it in. The media has lost a lot of traction, they have stopped being in the middle, your journalistic work today competes with that of an influencer.

We are running behind.

Yes, this change forces an electoral process like the North American one to rethink, when making a decision, where you put your money is very important. I have a feeling that the Democrats at this moment are not saying that they are going to put the money in Florida. As I said before, I think that the Republican victory necessarily passes through Florida, the Democratic victory does not.

"Trump dice que apoya al pueblo cubano, pero se parece mucho a los dictadores socialistas que hicieron huir a muchos hispanos"

What do you think of Biden's policy - and even US policy - toward Venezuela?

As a Venezuelan, what I am experiencing in the country hurts me, angers me, and touches me. And what I want is my country to be free, that people make progress. It's a country that has been destroyed and the number one priority for me, and that's why I cannot be objective. But I try to understand from my experience in electoral campaigns what may be moving. At this moment for the United States government, the most important pain is the issue of immigration, then comes the issue of oil production and finally the issue of democracy. The government understands that it has an important issue on the border, which generates a number of problems, where Venezuelans are an important factor. As a Venezuelan, I see it the other way around, I say as long as there is no democracy, there will continue to be immigration. The origin of immigration is not that people like to walk through the jungle where their lives are at risk. That is not what Venezuelan people want: they want to live well in their homes, where they have always wanted to live. The US does not see it that way and has another priority. Why? Because in an election year, immigration and the border have a direct impact on the internal vote. Once again, I would like a different solution.

At this moment for the United States government, the most important pain is the issue of immigration, then comes the issue of oil production and finally the issue of democracy.

Do you think that Marina Corina Machado does not have the US support that other leaders who challenged Chavismo had? What is that relationship like?

Maria Corina has first earned her leadership, she has recovered a hope for change in Venezuela that is extremely important and for which we must support her. Now she embodies a possibility of change in the country and she demonstrated it in a very precarious primary election in which she obtained more than 2 million votes and the truth is that it is very significant. Afterwards, I think that it has the important recognition in the international community that it always has. Precisely as a result of this condition, she built more international strength before building national strength, that is my feeling. She has good allies on the continent. What happens is that the capacity of the international situation to influence Venezuelan daily life is what is in question. How much a community can really change the situation of what is actually happening. It's complicated.

But there was a supposed time with a greater impact, especially from the United States in Venezuela.

Yes, because there was a clear illusion of an invasion, of something that was not going to happen. This illusion generated the feeling, among some people, that the United States was a determining factor. It is undoubtedly a determining factor but not in that way. It is through the promotion of democracy. I think that María Corina must be supported and she must also marry the democratic path, that is the point, I think there are some people who are waiting for her to say "yes, the democratic path is my thing."