"An era is ending. There is a generation of politicians that have retire, Rafael Correa, Nicolás Maduro, Cristina Kirchner, Mauricio Macri. Fortunately, I do not belong to that generation because I am from the previous one. I renew myself all the time, I teach at universities, I read, I am aware of the latest happenings in quantum physics, in astronomy and then I do not age intellectually," says Jaime Durán Barba. The famous Latino consultant, who has just returned to Ecuador From Argentina, is a professor at George Washington University. In an exclusive dialogue with LPO, he analyzes the outsiders' profile, he compares Donald Trump with the Argentine Javier Milei and talks about Andrés Manuel López Obrador's decision to postpone his friend Marcelo Ebrard as a candidate and appoint the former mayoress of the DF, Claudia Sheinbaum, as his successor.

You advised Mauricio Macri, who is now part of the system that generates social rejection. Is there a new kind of outsider that differs from what was presented as new a few years ago?

In the case of Macri, he was a guy who was devoured, but he is just like (Abdala) Bucaram, (Gabriel) Boric, (Pedro) Castillo, and all other outsiders. He is someone from outside politics, he kicks the board, he does not respect the rules of politics, he does not respect the institutions and gets a negative vote from people who are against the system. He is a phenomenon that has been studied for many years.

How and why do outsiders age so quickly?

It's their characteristic, they normally disappear within a year. Castillo is already at home, (Guillermo) Lasso is already at home, Boric would fall at any time if the Chileans were not so conservative. They are phenomena that normally have no governance.

Outsiders like Milei usually disappear within a year. Castillo is already at home, Lasso is at home, Boric would fall at any time if the Chileans were not so conservative. They are phenomena that normally have no governance.

That raises big questions for democracy.

That' the way democracy is. For the first time in the United States we have a president who has been charged, prosecuted, who is increasingly popular, which is Trump. The only one in 200 years who tried to break democracy and occupy the Capitol.

What similarities do you see between Milei and Trump?

It is the same phenomenon all over the world, it is the phenomenon of people who are against politics and who seek a vote against the system. It doesn't matter whether they are left or right. It may be Castillo, (Jair) Bolsonaro or Trump, it doesn't matter.

In the case of Trump, he was able to govern from the Republican Party even though the establishment was against him.

It's not the party. The United States is a country that navigates on autopilot no matter who the president is, even with the current old man who doesn't even have the slightest idea, but he keeps going. The Biden thing is a disaster, poor man, he makes me sad.

Last year he didn't do so badly in the midterm elections.

The United States is a huge ship that sails on autopilot. Presidents don't have that much power either. In Latin American countries, on the other hand, presidents are sometimes nothing short of divine.

Steve Bannon says that Trumpism is the true party of the working class and represents a neglected sector. Do you agree?

There is no doubt that Trump is the candidate of the proletariat, there is no doubt. The second industrial revolution occurred in what is called the Rust Belt, which is the North American industrial belt, with Detroit and the Great Lakes states as its main axis. There were the unions, the Democratic Party and the two elements of the second industrial revolution were produced, which is the mass production and diffusion of electricity. They, who were the stars of the United States, have come to a very secondary role, when another culture emerges in California, as they say, of companies that have no assets, they have no books, taxi companies without taxis, which are the prestigious Silicon Valley startups. So the Rust Belt workers are very conservative, usually white, usually heterosexual, furious with these crazy Silicon Valley people who defend liberal things and who are experiencing the technological revolution. So yes, Trump represents that proletariat.

In the case of Javier Milei, there are also traditional Peronist voters who support him. He is a cross-class phenomenon, but what is surprising is the support from the low income sectors.

Of course, the fight between left and right is something obsolete. Those on the left are very old and reactionary. Correa is an old man who talks about Cuba and Venezuela, which are things that no young person views with sympathy, instead of talking about artificial intelligence, robotics, technological change. So, Milei represents a diverse society, it is a new revolution that has nothing to do with the left-right paradigm that existed (until) 10 years ago.

What do you think of the elections in the United States?

This new society of the third revolution, which in some cases seems horrible to me and I like in others, continues to advance. For now, Unless justice does something, I think that Trump will win the next election. He was in a stadium and people were raving about him. When he showed his face for the police to take a photo after being arrested, there was an explosion of t-shirts and mugs. He earned 7 million dollars with that photo.

The fight between left and right is something obsolete. Those on the left are very old and very reactionary. Correa is an old man who goes around talking about Cuba and Venezuela, which young people see without any sympathy, instead of talking about artificial intelligence, robotics, technological change. Milei represents a heterogeneous society, a new revolution.

The Democrats surrounding Biden think that Trump is going to easily win the primary and lose the general elections again against the president. What do you think?

Without a doubt, if Trump and Biden face each other, Trump wins. I am not saying what I would like to happen, I am a Democrat and I'm totally against Trump, but these are new times. Take a look at what happens when Trump enters a place: people jump, hug him, laugh... the same things happen with Milei. When Milei enters a place, you see a lot of people shouting ‘La Libertad Avanza, fucking hell,' you see a movement. When there are Juntos por el Cambio meetings, it seems as someone has died and they are having a wake.

It is not very different in Peronism.

It's terrible. Look at this, (Sergio) Massa almost always speaks in a solemn setting, with a tie. You see men - almost never a woman - ... millionaire men with jackets when they are workers, and with a tie when they are businessmen. However, they are all millionaires. You see Milei jumping with the people, getting involved, shouting, expressing feelings. Sergio does not shed a tear even if a relative dies.

There was enthusiasm with Cristina during those years.

Yes, furthermore, although my position may sound obsessive, she was a woman. And she was a feminine woman, she was not Dilma Rousseff.

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Why does Milei seduce in the United States? And why does he catches the attention of people like Tucker Carlson or Elon Musk?

Because a guy like Milei is more compatible with an advanced society than something like Peronism, which seen from the United States, is an antiquated thing that makes no sense. Milei is modern. He is a guy who does represent things similar to those of Trump, and those of a group of similar leaders. Milei is a 21st century leader, hateful or whatever. People like the Peronists, like Pope Francis, the curas villeros (priests from the slums), are old men from the beginning of the last century.

That is why you define Massa as the candidate of the old corporate society institutions.

The apparatus of the governorates, the mayoralties, the phantom employees. It is possible that Massa has half a million people campaigning who are paid for by the State.

But that may not be enough given the context.

A phenomenon like Milei is difficult to stop because they are the phenomena of the new times. It's like someone wanting to start a typewriter store because computers are bad. That business will not go well. Right now the world is going through a colossal change in which two new species, mechanized men and robots, are going to share life.

You say that Peronism and Juntos por el Cambio share a wrong strategy in the face of Milei's victory in the primaries in Argentina.

That's it. I have always thought that if the Pope excommunicated me, I would sell millions of my books. When the Pope attacks a presidential candidate, he gives him a lot of votes. Everyone who attacks Milei has negative numbers. They help them.

Milei is a 21st century leader, hateful or whatever. People like the Peronists, like Pope Francis or the curas villeros (priests from the slums) are old men from the beginning of the last century. When the Pope attacks a presidential candidate, he gives the candidate a lot of votes. Everyone who attacks Milei has negative numbers. They help him.

Milei grows thanks to them.

The more people like (Elisa) Carrió attack him... right now Carrió has a 75% negative image, a totally discredited person. If a person like she attacks Milei, perfect. Mauricio (Macri) is the most discredited PRO leader, and he appears in the campaign. Perfect.

How much negative political image does Macri have today?

Close to 68%.

For now Cristina Fernández de Kirchner decides not to appear. Do you think she does the right thing?

She is acting very well to help Massa. Because if she shows up, she takes the votes away. Cristina is very clever, she is not stupid.

How does Juntos por el Cambio get out from the promise of austerity and the silly closeness with Milei that you talked about?

To begin with, Milei has a problem reaching out to women, objectively. Massa is not lucky with that target either. If I had been advising Patricia (Bullrich), she would have been the woman, the mother, the grandmother who seeks the presidency with feelings, because she is the only one who can contest the feminine field. It's what I did with Marina Silva in Brazil. But Patricia looks more like a man.

AG La Plata

Some people will vote for her, but now it is insufficient.

If I were an Argentine voter who wanted a male and authoritarian candidate, and I have a very good candidate, Why voting for a similar candidate? I vote for Milei.

You say she is poorly advised.

I also talked about that with Patricia. I told her "You are a woman in a sexist country, like all Latinos, and it seems that the candidates are two men who rule, Melco and Mauricio." It's lethal. It is always lethal, but after the experience of the puppet we have had these four years in Argentina - he has the title of president but he does not command anything - it is even worse. These are very bad times to present yourself as a woman in the hands of male bosses.

You say that the 31% of people who didn't vote are not disinterested but rather angry. Do you think they are closer to voting for Milei?

Definitely. The current undecided voter is not like that of ancient times. Before, the one who said I don't know who the candidate is, I'm not interested, was the undecided. The current undecided people are very active, so yes, it is more likely for such an undecided person to vote for someone who rejects the system than to vote for someone who does not reject it.

If I would advised Patricia Bullrich, I would have made the candidate a woman, a mother, a grandmother who seeks the presidency with feelings, because she is the only one who can contest the feminine field. But Patricia is more like a man, and it seems that the candidates are two men and they are in charge, Melconian and Mauricio. These are bad times to present yourself as a woman in the hands of male bosses.

Do you think it's a mistake when people think that it can favor the forces that remained behind Milei?

The undecided voter will easily respond in favor of Milei's show, regardless of what he says or thinks. I am angry with the system, and I see a guy who lives insulting everyone, shouting: it's perfect, I like this one. In some way, (Santiago) Kovadloff, who launched Patricia's book, is what I would not vote for if I were an undecided voter angry with the system. (Alberto) Fernánadez and Massa left you with almost nothing to eat, a piece of bread. I'm going to take it away from you so that in 20 years things will go well for you. Nice message, it's for them to chase you away.

Milei's message does not promise suffering and it can be effective in winning the election. But what can happen if Milei's voters discover the adjustment and see it hit them squarely?

You will have problems with every president, because the world is ungovernable for everyone, but if Milei dollarizes the economy, he could have a huge popularity boost.

You say that dollarization worked very well in Ecuador, but Argentina is a different country.

In Ecuador, not even Correa - an anti-imperialist militant - could touch dollarization. People would kill him. People love dollarization.

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It is surprising that you compared Milei with AMLO, because he was not going to make an adjustment regarding politics.

It was AMLO's demagogy. Don't worry, I'm not going to touch a penny, I'm going to finance the deficit by removing the ministers. It is theoretically nonsense, and any economist would say the same, but people say "It's not against me."

You have been advising Marcelo Ebrard for years. He has just been postponed by AMLO as a candidate. What is your analysis of the electoral political scenario in Mexico?

AMLO is an authoritarian, he was always against Marcelo, he did all the possible tricks to make Marcelo lose the poll, and he even prevented his delegates from attending the opening of the poll that marginalized him. So, all this caused a crisis and Marcelo is going his way. I think it could mean the defeat of AMLO in the elections.

Do you think that AMLO's candidate, the former mayor of DF, Claudia Sheimbaun, can lose?

I think so.

But against who? With the opposition or with Ebrard?

We'll see, but Marcelo's exit discredits Claudia's choice and a leap into the void appears.

Are you going to accompany him in the campaign?

He is one of my best friends, we have been friends for decades, and I will help him in any way I can.

Is there no chance that Ebrard withdraw from the candidacy?

Mmm... All is being discussed, it is still not clear what we will do, but we will fight.

What can they offer Ebrard to get him out?

Nothing. Marcelo has already been everything he could be. He was head of the city government, chancellor, he is a brilliant intellectual, he is not a guy who lives for and from politics.

Why do you think AMLO doesn't want him and moves against him?

AMLO belongs to the old left, he still admires Maduro, he lives in the Sargasso Sea next to Cuba. Marcelo is a very prepared person, he speaks many languages, he is a professor at the School of Higher Studies in Paris, and he is from another level.

Between Marcos Peña and Milei there is no comparison. The first one is a serious intellectual and the other is a successful clown.

Do you see coordinated movements in the extreme right of Trump, Bolsonaro and Milei?

There are people who like that, but I don't think any of them have any influence anywhere. Nor has the Puebla group in which old people on the left are, nor the club on the right led by Vargas Llosa. They are retired clubs that have no importance.

Trumpism's handling of social media is very shocking.

Yes, but in Argentina there are people who also know how to do that very well, I have taken them to work with me in Colombia and Mexico. The phenomenon of social networks is a global phenomenon, there are very prepared people in several countries.

In an interview with The Economist, Milei attacked Marcos Peña and said he was a victim of trolls.

Marcos Peña never had trolls. He criticizes everyone who questions his position.

It is strange because Peña has been out of politics for a long time.

Absolutely. There is no comparison between Marcos and Milei. The first one is a serious intellectual and the other is a successful clown.