Carlos Fara has just been elected president of the International Association of Political Consultant (IAPC), the most important organization that brings together political consultants at a global level. This January he will take over for a two-year period at the head of an entity that was created in the late 1960s by two legends, Joseph Napolitan, advisor to John Fitzgerald Kennedy and Michael Bongrand, the consultant who worked with Charles De Gaulle. Only two Latinos became president of the IAPC before him: in 2011, the first Latino was the Argentine Felipe Noguera, who was later followed by the Colombian Mauricio De Vengoechea. In dialogue with LPO, Fara talks about the impact of the Hispanic vote in the United States presidential campaign, he analyzes the impact of Javier Milei's victory and explains the importance of Argentina in the region.

How has the growth of the Latino vote changed the work of Latino consultants in recent times?

Since Latin America is a different cultural matrix, it requires people who not only speak Spanish, but also think in Spanish. The narrative and cultural codes are very different for a country that is becoming bilingual. They do not necessarily have to be Latino, it is also important that there are people, Americans, who have grown up in Latino homes. That helps a lot. Because in the end, our work of consultants is a great anthropological work. I have to identify certain cultural keys of the electorate to be able to interact positively with them, much more so when two different cultures coexist, with different motivations. We need people who think with a Latin mentality to decode how these sectors are reached.

LPOJuan Casas

Democrats and Republicans are fighting for the Latino vote. What is the key?

The historical sensitivity of the Democrats towards minorities in general, Latinos, African Americans, Asians and the gay world is clear. This was particularly noticeable with Obama's re-election in 2012, while during the previous run many said ‘with these indicators of the economy and management, a president cannot be re-elected'. the appearance of microtargeting and the intelligence of being able to interact with minorities, demographics helped Obama. And at that time many thought that if it was due to demographics it would be difficult for the Republicans to win again, but in 2016 Trump won.

There is a first important change among Hispanics in 1980. Reagan managed to penetrate the Hispanic vote based on and issue that was family values. In 2016, that happened with the white workers of the Rust Belt, Democrats who ended up voting for Trump.

What unites Latinos and Republicans?

There is a first important change among Hispanics, which was the 1980 election, which Ronald Reagan won. Some author like Paul Lazarsfeld defined it as the first postmodern choice, because it weighed segmentation and technology. Reagan managed to penetrate the Hispanic vote based on an issue that was family values, which are more Republican than Democratic and that issue managed to capture Latinos. It was the first time that a Republican knew how to insert himself among Hispanics because he knew how to interpret issues linked to the value system. In 2016, when Trump wins, that happened with the white workers of the Rust Belt, who were Democrats but ended up voting for Trump. Today, all segments are more volatile, and especially the younger segments. And if the Republican candidate finds the issue, he has the opportunity to capture the Latino vote because current factors displace structural factors - in significance - in the vote.

"Trump quiere dejarle claro a sus rivales republicanos que, si lo traicionan, van a pagar un precio muy alto"

What would you say Trump has to seduce Latinos? What makes him different?

Let's start with a central element that is La Florida, with everything it implies for its anti-communist discourse and anti-Boliviarian leaders. Migrations have been very strong in the last 10 years and Trump is the character who works well by contrasting what immigrant Latinos did not want to happen in their country and do not want to happen in the United States either. Trump uses interesting emotionality. But there are also two other issues. The first is strong leadership. For the Latin-minded public, the fighter is important.

LPOJuan Casas

That marks a very strong contrast between Trump and Biden.

Completely. And the other also important detail is that if you are a migrant, you know that you are going to manage everything the best you can, because you always play as a visitor, culturally speaking. Trump has this logic of letting people develop as they can and not interrupting their initiative and personal effort. There Trump comes in and strikes in a different way, especially for Latino audiences who are not recent migrants but rather a culture of migrants generations. It is the country that embraced you. There is a lot of self-made man culture.

Trump uses interesting emotionality to speak to immigrant Latinos. But there is also an issue and that is strong leadership. For the Latin-minded public, the fighter is important.

Trump, who had ignored Milei during the campaign, praised him a lot as soon as he won. What does Trumpism see in Milei?

An opportunity. In the sense that Trump can say: "Be careful, it's not just me." Milei, Bolsonaro, maybe Bukele. There is a trend of global public opinion that exceeds what happens inside the United States. Second, I think it is a relationship that is a little more on the surface because Trump, Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson have a more ideological discourse against cultural Marxism that in Milei is much more ‘washed', beyond the fact that he calls himself the first liberal president. Why? Because his own public, except for some ideologized nuclei, the majority of Milei's voter, that original 30 percent, is a depoliticized public that has no connection with cultural Marxism and does not see a particular issue in that. More than anything, they voted for a character who generated an expectation that they will be able to develop themselves, because in Argentina everything is an obstacle, starting with the State.

LPOJuan Casas

What are the similarities? And the differences?

I would be cautious with similarities, first because Milei is a 100% outsider. Trump is a character who comes from the private world, but he needed to colonize a traditional party like the Republicans to be able to get there. In some Trump nuclei, I do see something more similar to the Milei voter who is not ideologized and can be assimilated more to Trumpist voters like these from the rust belt. This voter says "I want to work, I want to improve, I want my own house," in that mix of nationalism and self-made man that says "allow me to progress." That segment of Milei is more anti-political establishment.

"Los outsiders como Milei desaparecen en un año porque no tienen gobernabilidad"

Do you agree with those who think that there is something of Trump in Milei when he wins votes from impoverished sectors that never voted for Macri?

Completely, it is the first time since 1946 that an anti-status quo character appears who, following classical sociology, attracts available masses, as Gino Germani would say in a situation of vacuum of political, partisan, ideological identities. It is the first time that there is someone who competes with Peronism on the basis, obviously with the age cut-off. In that sense he is very different, especially from Macri, and also from Ricardo Alfonsín and Fernando De la Rúa.

Argentina is part of the G20 and the United States always tries to ensure that it does not run so far behind Brazil because it does not want Brazil as the only interlocutor. In a complicated region, if Argentina explodes for some reason, it acts as a domino in the area.

How do you assess Biden's strategy, who reacted quickly in search of a dialogue with Milei and sent some of his officials? It seems that Biden does not want to give Milei to Trump and that Argentina matters at this moment.

Several points come together here. I don't know if Argentina matters that much in the world, but it is part of the G20 and is a piece of the Western world more than anything else. Second, we must not forget that the United States always tries to ensure that Argentina does not run so far behind Brazil because it does not want Brazil as the only interlocutor in the region. We saw that very clearly in the 90s, in the game that the United States played with Menem, beyond Menem's needs. Third, in a region that is complicated, if Argentina explodes for some reason, it acts as a domino in the area. I always remember this: in 2001, Argentina had its crisis, and in 2002 all Latin America decreased in GDP, except Peru, which grew two points. With all its problems, it is one of the four big ones in the region. It better doesn't explode in a region that is very complicated politically and that does not have a good five years ahead of it. Finally, There is a mischief from Biden that says: Why am I going to give Milei to Trump? If the guy says he's Western and pro-Israeli, I can embrace him too. It is a mischief by Biden with a character who was not in the embassy papers.

LPOJuan Casas

How do new generations of Latinos influence politics today?

Younger audiences are more heterogeneous, more culturally diverse and more open-minded; in principle, they would be more in tune than democrats. There is a very interesting bet by the Democrats with more anti-status quo characters like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Beyond his age, Biden has the opportunity to show that he connects better with that public, compared to this very conservative face of the Republicans. Bet on the same thing as Obama, being the image of the most diverse United States. Trump is more of the nostalgic image, Make America Great Again, like bringing what happened to the present. Democrats are trying to have a speech about the future, not nostalgia. That gives them an opportunity and we actually saw it in the 2022 election, appealing to what in the United States is called the value debate. That cannot be projected to the presidential election, but there are sensitivities where they can operate. We have to be careful: because the youngest audiences are also the most volatile and nobody buys anything in advance.

Translator: Bibiana Ruiz.