David Fadul is a clear expression of the new generations involved in politics in the United States. He is just 25 years old and directs Poll Progressive Strategies, a consulting firm specialized in state studies that carries out periodic measurements and focuses on young people and the Latino community. He is the son of a Colombian father and a mother who worked for 30 years in the US State Department. Fadul has a keen eye on the electoral dispute that will once again pit Joe Biden against Donald Trump in November. But he also offers a very useful x-ray to understand the reasons why Hispanics vote and the dilemma that young people face when they deal with two "old and white" candidates.
How did the idea of founding Poll Progressive come about?
I have always been interested in politics and government, because my mom has been working there for many years and she educated me on how government can be a positive function for people. So, I got involved in local progressive politics, I started in 2015, and when I went to college in Boston, I learned more about how to do polls and how to help local candidates. I have always been interested in local politics more than national politics. After I graduated, I started this little company, just to help local candidates because I didn't see enough people doing that.
When did you realize that there was an empty space around this topic?
When I was studying, I worked with local political groups in Massachusetts and there I saw that there are people who are working hard on this. I was born and raised in Washington, where there are many people who focus on national politics. But the irony is that we are not a state and we only have local government. We do not have congressmen or senators. I grew up in a city where government people work in the national government, but when we go to vote in the city we only vote for the local. In Boston I saw the same: a lot of people who focus on the national, but not enough who focus on councilors and state governments.
The consultancy's motto ensures that changes start locally. Why do you say that?
The national government has the power to do big things that take a lot of time, like changing the health system, but if you want trash to be picked up three times instead of once a week, that's going to impact you more than the national government. Regarding environment, the national government invests billions but locally you can focus on creating a recycling system more easily and without all the money to talk to congressmen and have influence on the Capitol.
Why do you highlight that it is a company created by minorities?
My dad is Colombian, I am Hispanic and that gives me a unique perspective, because for a long time politics was only a white thing in the United States. For a long time, white people did politics to preserve power and persecute minorities and now I love to see that more minorities are getting involved in politics. Because that is the only way our perspective is going to be realized. If I have a Hispanic customer, I can talk to him or her in Spanish. I will understand more about his or her life than without that perspective.
For many people, the Latino vote is an indecipherable enigma regarding the presidential elections. How can we analyze it?
It's very interesting. For a long time, consultants were white or non-Hispanic. So, they thought the only thing that mattered to Hispanics was immigration. But I focus on Bernie Sanders' campaign in 2016 and 2020, because he is an old, white man from a state that is 97% white. However, he received 50% of the Hispanic votes while Biden only had about 15%. How was this man able to connect with Hispanics? It was his family's story, his immigration story, yes, but also how he talked about the health system, people's medical debt and education. Bernie spoke to Hispanics and gave them something to believe in, that he could do something good for the country. A very old and white man was able to get many Hispanic votes. Now a group of Hispanics are migrating towards the Republicans and I think that the Democrats are focusing a lot on immigration and are not talking about other things like health, which could help many people, including Hispanics. I liked when Biden tried to cancel student debt, because Hispanics in the United States are younger than the general population. More Hispanics were going to benefit from that until the Supreme Court prevented it.
Biden is also a very white and very old man like Sanders, but he has more difficulties.
Well, yes, Biden is old and white, but I also think his ideas are more moderate than Bernie's. Bernie is old, but many people see him with energy and see that he has a clear mind. That is the difference. When many people see Biden they don't see energy. They don't think he can do it. So, Bernie had the most progressive policies and, although many Hispanics would not define themselves as progressive, his ideas are progressive. Biden is popular when he fights for the most progressive things, like expanding health coverage, something that has a concrete effect on people. But he loses that point when he talks about immigration as an invasion, just like the Republicans.
Those are the things that can define the vote of the new Latin generations.
Yes. I don't think minors are going to vote for Trump. What I think is that the dilemma is different. It's not the difference between voting for Biden or Trump: it's the difference between voting or not. People are deciding if they want to vote. In the United States, only 50 or 60% of people vote for president. There is a very large group that decides not to vote. There are many people who can't, because they are busy, but there are many people who have the time and don't want to. And most of the choice is based on who can convince those people that going and vote is worth it. When Biden talks about immigrants and says they are illegal, as in his State of the Union speech, that means many young and Hispanic people don't want to vote for him.
So, the big danger for Biden would not be that young people vote for Trump but that they stay at home.
That's how it is. People say that young people don't vote and it is true that they don't vote the same as those who are 65 years old. But the younger ones knock on doors, make the calls and send the texts. I have worked on many campaigns. When a campaign is good, they want people young and old, together, talking to voters. Young people have the energy to knock on more doors. And if your campaign is not attractive to young people, you are going to lose those volunteers. That's critical, because volunteers are the lifeblood of a campaign. If you don't have the volunteers, especially the young ones, you won't have the energy to win. When young people are asking Biden for attention, it's not just because Democrats want their votes, but also their energy to leave their house and talk to 40 people on a weekend. Instead of playing video games, they can go out and knock on doors, talk to 40 or 50 people and convince them to vote Democrat.
"Si los partidos no movilizan el voto hispano joven, hoy no hay forma de ganar una elección"
Does the president have a way to encourage them to leave their house with his speech and his campaign?
The State of the Union was a lot of that. These are things that sound good to Democrats, talking about unions, raising the minimum wage in the United States, the environment, access to reproductive health, and be against firearms. These are three things that matter a lot to young people. Young people are in the schools where those shootings occur, young people are going to live in a world where climate change is happening and young people are growing up in a country where the right to abortion is no longer the law of the entire country. My generation is one of the first to live in a country where rights are less than those our parents had. Young people want to see that politicians care about that and are fighting for that. That's why the State of the Union was important. Biden clearly wanted to tell Democrats and independents that he is going to fight for them. They want someone who is going to fight against Republicans and against conservatives, wherever.
How do you explain the support of Latinos for Trump?
I hate Trump, so I'll never fully understand it. But I think that for a long time they saw the Republican Party as the party of hating migrants and Trump still says it. But when he was president, he received Obama's good economy and I think many people give Trump credit for that economy, which from 2017 to 2019 was very good. If you are a Hispanic, or of any race, you are interested in the economy and low taxes. I think that Hispanics who support Trump do that because of the economy from 2017 until the pandemic.
What is the main difference between the new generations of Latino voters and the older ones?
I think one great thing about my generation is that we grew up more socially progressive. If someone is gay, it doesn't matter for our generation. We don't even think about it, it's normal. We started voting just as the Supreme Court decided that gay marriage was legal. We never knew the world where gay people were persecuted by the law. There are states where they are trying to take away those rights.
Biden and Trump easily won the primaries. However, there are second readings that can offer decisive data towards November.
Yes, the war in Gaza, which I think is a genocide of the Palestinians. People of my generation think that what Israel is doing is terrible. We are reading that they are killing children and innocent people. We grew up during the war in Iraq and Afghanistan, we only know about war. The United States is always in a war - or there is a war somewhere -, and what I saw on Super Tuesday is that there are many people, Muslims, young people but everyone in general... I did a survey about that, I saw that even old democrats want the war to end. Of course, Biden won the primaries, but thousands and thousands voted against Biden to send him a message: they want the war to stop. That's why Biden said in the State of the Union that he should stop this killing.
Biden seems to be in a trap regarding Netanyahu.
It seems obvious to me that Netanyahu hates Biden. Netanyahu wants Trump to come back because Trump was the one who gave Israel everything it wanted during his presidency. Netanyahu doesn't care at all if Biden loses. I think Biden doesn't like Netanyahu either, but he treats him as he is, an incredible ally, like England. Netanyahu's plan is clear: he wants to continue the war to maintain power and does not care if Biden loses.
What is your assessment of Trump's performance in the primaries?
On the Republican side, I saw that it is Trump's party. But 20 to 30 percent of conservatives don't like Trump. People who are more conservative than liberal and they don't want him. He is not doing anything to get their votes. He keeps saying things like "If you gave money to Nikki Haley, I don't want you in my alliance." To moderate people who don't like Biden and are looking for something else because they don't like the economy, Trump tells them "I don't need your votes, I have everything I need."
Biden has a chance to get those votes.
That's right. And when Nikki Haley left the campaign, Biden immediately messaged the people who had supported her to tell them he was open to them. It could be 20 thousand people, 30 thousand people, but you know that Biden won the states in 2020 by about 40 thousand votes and Hillary lost some of the states in 2016 by 30 thousand votes. If you can win those votes in the important states, that's how you win. And Biden knows it. I don't know if Trump knows that yet.
Translation: Bibiana Ruiz.
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