The PSOE surprises and obtains a better result than expected. Pedro Sánchez is close to reaching a majority without gaining support from the regional parties. A scenario that no survey projected, already a trademark of elections around the world. 

The Socialists obtained 122 seats, fourteen less than the PP, that obtained 136. Vox got 33 and Sumar, the force of the Minister of Labor, was located in a creditable fourth place with 31 seats. 

Thus, the PP was far from the 150 seats predicted by several polls, which in turns distanced it from the absolute majority with Vox, necessary to form a government. With this figures, the right-wing bloc obtained 169 seats and the left-wing bloc, 153 representatives. To form a government, 176 seats are needed. 

"There is room to govern," they exulted from the PSOE, on Ferraz Street, hinting that they had room to reach the magic number of an absolute majority with the pro-independence and regionalist parties. 

There is room to govern, they exulted from the PSOE, hinting at the possibility of forming a majority with the regionalist parties

In Genoa, and off the record, they recognized "the numbers" and accepted having had a "black and unexpected night." However, Feijóo was triumphant in the "celebration" of the PP, he anticipated he will seek to form a government and asked the PSOE not to block "the party with the most votes." 

But the truth is that without an absolute majority, Feijóo is left with practically no possibility of governing, despite the fact that he will ask for his right to form a government as he is the first minority. 

For that reason, Feijóo asked that the legitimacy of the most voted candidate to form a government be respected, and he pointed to the PSOE for the alleged intention of blocking his future investiture and leading the country to an institutional blockade, similar to that of 2015-2016. 

Without an absolute majority for any block, Feijóo is left with practically no possibility of governing, despite the fact that he will ask for his right to form a government as he is the first minority

The Vox fall, the other newness of the election, ends up being a problem for the leader of the popular. Abascal was stuck in the third place but with Sumar just two deputies away. Thus the votes of this far-right force are not enough to be a majority. In addition, Sánchez's strategy of mobilizing the vote against Vox was effective and those of Abascal ended up with 19 fewer seats than in 2019. 

Sánchez, on the other hand, would have some margin with the 7 seats for ERC, the 6 for Bildu, the seat for BNG and another for Coalición Canarias. The mystery, at the close of election day, is what JxCAT - JUNTS will do with their 7 seats. The Catalan formation announced that it will not "support any bloc," leaving hanging the possibility of an electoral repetition. 

Andalusia and Catalonia, the most important electoral seats have also given air to the PSOE. In the first autonomous community, Socialism is one deputy away from the PP, with 23 and 24, respectively. The former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero ended up being key in the Andalusian campaign. He led rallies and meetings with the base and recovered a good quantity of the votes lost two years ago.

AP

In Catalonia, the PSOE has an unquestionable majority of 19 seats, with the popular growing to six, below the intention of "quadrupling" its number of deputies. Catalan Socialism becomes the party with the most votes with Salvado Illa, former Minister of Health and a trusted man of the Sanchismo. 

The mystery, at the close of election day, is what JxCAT - JUNTS will do with their 7 seats. The Catalan formation announced that it will not "support any bloc," leaving hanging the possibility of an electoral repetition.

Another good scenario for Sánchez was in the Basque Country, where the Socialists achieve a tie with the Nationalist parties. With practically all the votes counted, the PSOE, the PVN and Bildu, the surprise in Euskadi due to the sorpasso, got seven seats each, with the PP with two and Sumar with one. This way, the Socialists triumphed in Álava, the Abertzales in Guipúzcoa and the Jeltzales in Bizkaia. 

In any case, everything will be defined during the negotiations of the coming weeks. Two possible scenarios: either blockade and new elections, or revalidation of another progressive legislature led by Pedro Sánchez.