 | In the nation's third-largest county, Republicans have lost nearly 30 points in 20 years. Hard data: whites weigh less and minorities represent 60% of the electorate. |
In Harris County, Texas, in the early 1990s, Republicans began to dominate elected countywide offices on the strength of the non-Hispanic White vote. Nonetheless, as the growing minority population has come of age, the shifting percent share of the citizen voting age population (CVAP) among the major voting groups in the County, outside and inside the City of Houston's legal boundaries, have steadily diminished the strength of the non-Hispanic White electorate. Those changes have resulted in the end to the over a decade Republican rule of the nation's third largest County.
The 2000 Census and on-going American Community Surveys (ACS) show the Republicans' loss of electoral power coincides with non-Hispanic Whites' decreasing share of the citizen voting age population in Harris County. In 2000, non-Hispanic Whites comprised an estimated 69% of the citizen voting age population in Harris County outside Houston and 44% within Houston proper. That CVAP advantage translated electorally in the contests for President and Governor. In 2000, Republican George W. Bush received 68% of the vote in Harris County outside the City of Houston and a competitive 48% inside Houston. And in 2002, Republican Rick Perry won Harris County receiving two-thirds of the vote outside Houston.
The 2005-2009 American Community Survey, released in the winter of 2010, showed the non-Hispanic White Citizen Voting Age Population was down to 59% in Harris County outside Houston and 42% inside Houston. Five years later, the 2010-2014 ACS showed the non-Hispanic White CVAP was down to 51% in Harris County outside Houston and 37% inside Houston.
The political impact of the cumulative changes in the CVAP were first evident in the Presidential elections that saw the then Democratic US Senator from Illinois Barack Obama win Harris County in 2008 and 2012 by less than 1%. In both elections former President Obama won 40% of the vote in Harris County outside Houston and an estimated 61% in Houston. In contrast, in the 2000 and 2002 County elections, democratic candidates seeking countywide offices only garnered about 30% of the vote from County voters outside of Houston.
The falling CVAP of non-Hispanic Whites continues to be apparent in the most recent American Community Surveys. The 2014-2018 ACS, released at the end of 2019, showed that the non-Hispanic White CVAP was down to 46% in Harris County outside Houston and 35% inside Houston. And the 2016-2020 American Community Survey, released in the Spring of 2022, showed the non-Hispanic White CVAP at 43% in Harris County outside of Houston and down to 34% inside Houston. That explains the County vote outside Houston for Democratic candidates seeking countywide offices.
In the 2016 election, the Democratic Party presidential candidate won 45% of the vote outside Harris County and 49% in 2020. And, in the 2018 Midterm, the Democratic Party nominee for the U.S. Senate received 50% of the votes in the County excluding Houston.
The decrease of the non-Hispanic White CVAP in Harris County outside of Houston is not necessarily due to a numeric decline. In fact, in the span of twenty-years, the non-Hispanic White CVAP grew about 60,000 in Harris County outside the legal boundaries of Houston. However, in the same period, in Harris County outside Houston, the Latino CVAP grew approximately 300,000, African Americans 150,000 and Asian 70,000. In the same period, inside Houston, the data shows the non-Hispanic White CVAP decreased at least 60,000, while the Hispanic count increased about 170,000, Asian 34,000 and African Americans 13,000.
The growth of the CVAP among Hispanics, Asians and African Americans in Harris County has resulted in minorities comprising 57% of the CVAP in Harris County outside of Houston and 66% inside Houston proper. Countywide, minorities now account for 61% (and growing) of the persons who are 18 years of age and are eligible to register to vote.
Considering the changing citizen voting age population in Harris County and the voting trends in even numbered year elections, the double-digit victories for Democratic Party candidates seeking countywide office in the November 2012, 2016, 2018 and 2020 elections should not be surprising. In Texas largest county, the changing CVAP has made it impossible for Republican candidates to win countywide offices in Presidential election years and challenging even in elections with a low to middling minority voter turnout like the 2022 Midterms.Simply, the electoral consequences of a changing citizen voting age population in key political jurisdictions throughout the nation may be the reason statewide Republican elected officials throughout the country are continually using their power to alter the voting process.
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