Brazil has become the new global epicenter of the pandemic after exceeding the United States in the number of daily cases and deaths per million inhabitants, according to data from the prestigious Johns Hopkins University.

This is in addition to the new strains that emerged in Rio de Janeiro and Manaus, the latter with a viral load ten times more powerful than the others, with community circulation already being reported in several countries, including Argentina. In addition, most states' health system is on the brink of collapse or already completely destroyed and there seems to be no response from Jair Bolsonaro's government.

According to LPO, 19 Brazilian states have more than 80% of their intensive care beds occupied, some of them exceeding 90% of occupied beds, such as Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará or Santa Catarina, while much of the national territory will return to strict restriction policies.

"Bolsonaro's management of the pandemic will lead to genocide"

The Oswaldo Cruz Foundation reported that occupancy rates are classified as critical alert status (red), when they are equal to or greater than 80%, intermediate alert status (yellow), when they are equal to and greater than 60% and less than 80%, and outside the alert zone (green) when seen at less than 60%.

"19 Brazilian states have more than 80% of their intensive care beds occupied, some of them exceeding 90%, such as Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará and Santa Catarina, and much of the national territory will return to strict restriction policies."

The image shows a sequence of 17 maps raging from last July until this month, detailing intensive care occupancy rates in the Single Health System (SUS). "Even in the period between the second half of July and the month of August, when the highest number of cases and deaths were recorded in the country, there was no scenario similar to the current one, with most states and the Federal District placed in critical alert status," the specialized institute added.

Occupancy rates (%) for adult Covid-19 ICU beds

In turn, there are states recording lower occupancy levels, however, in the analysis of the cities making up metropolitan areas, the figure grows above 80 percent. An example of this is Rio de Janeiro, where Mayor Eduardo Paes ordered a curfew from 5 pm to and 5 a.m.

An important fact provided to LPO by a source at SUS, is that, considering the health situation figures and the percentage of people admitted to hospitals, figures do not take into account military hospitals. "The three branches and state police are auxiliary forces - like the Carabineros in Chile - and are not accounted for, nor was there any action during the entire pandemic period to offer those beds. It seems like a detail that is not relevant but exposes the power of the Armed Forces in the current context," he said.

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The doctor, a former Minister of Health with Lula and Dilma and a current member of the House of Representatives, Alexandre Padilha spoke with LPO and said that "Brazil is at the most serious and critical time of the pandemic. For the first time, all Brazilian states have more than 80 percent of their intensive care unit beds occupied by coronavirus patients, with hundreds of people in each states waiting for a bed."

For the member of the PT party, there are two reasons for this crisis. "Bolsonaro cut Health Ministry resources last year and reduced by more than 9,000 the number of intensive care unit beds that had been opened last year." "To please the market, he considered that the pandemic ended in December 2020 and eliminated resources in health, education and emergency relief. That adjustment caused the number of beds to drop from 13,000 units in 2020 to 3,000 in January 2021," he added.

Bolsonaro cut Health Ministry resources last year and reduced by more than 9,000 the number of intensive care unit beds that had been opened last year.

The second reason highlighted by Padilha "is the new, highly contagious variant that infects more people and raises the risks for younger ones, especially those under the age of 50." "The health system has reached total occupancy and several states have hundreds of people waiting in line. In Sao Paul alone there are 282 people who need to be in an ICU and do not have one available, including those who have money to pay for it." the official emphasized.

For the Brazilian doctor, lockdown measures in cities lasting at least 15 days are considered very important, although these have been criticized by Bolsonaro himself in the past few hours.

A stadium in Santo Andre, in the outskirts of Sao Paulo, has been adapted to receive critical care patients with Covid-19.

AP

However, the country's critical health situation did not worry Jair Bolsonaro, who minimized the seriousness of the situation and asked the population to stop the nonsense on the same day that the country exceeded the record number of 1,910 deaths from Coronavirus.

The data on mortality is concerning. According to data information collected by LPO, the number of deaths in the country surpassed 34,872 between November and December and 59,577 between January and February, showing a growth of 71%.

The figures reported by the states are even more concerning. The three most affected states are Amazonas, with an increase of 662% (the number of deaths increased from 730 to 5,565), Roraima, with a 229% growth (from 95 to 313), and Pará, reporting a hike of 225% (from 441 to 1.434). The list continues with Rondonia and Mina Gerais.

Bolsonaro has a genocidal attitude because he believes that the pandemic will only be controlled when 100 percent of the population has been infected.

In this context, Padilha assured that "Bolsonaro has a genocidal attitude because he believes that the pandemic will only be controlled when 100 percent of the population has been infected. That's why he supports actions that promote contagion."The herd theory went into crisis in Brazil when, despite the fact that more than 70% of the population had been infected with Covid, the city's health system faced a new collapsed due to reinfections."

"That fuels an economic preservation discourse and a denial-based narrative in order to mobilize his political base and see chances of reelection next year," he said.

There are two questions that roam in the Brazilian air. On the one hand, how strong can be the health collapse and its aftermath and, on the other hand, whether this will bring future political consequences.

Regarding the political scenario, the PT official denounces: "Bolsonaro promotes social chaos and conflict in the country through the liberation of weapons for militias and paramilitaries, betting on the fragility of democratic institutions, just as Trump did." "This health crisis will bring political consequences because there are many people who voted for Bolsonaro in 2018, but would not vote for him again. He has lost popular support and now focuses only on the 30/35% of core support he still has," he projected.

LPO also consulted the political scientist and head of the Department of International Relations at the University of Rio de Janeiro, Mauricio Santoro, who considered that "the president's popularity peaked at the end of last year just below 40% and has been declining throughout 2021, due to the combination of the end of the emergency aid, the worsening of the pandemic and the scarcity of vaccines."

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the president has lost the support of important portions of his electorate, mainly in the middle and upper classes. 

"This week, for the first time, presidential popularity fell below 30%. It will probably be further reduced. Trump managed to maintain his support always above 40%, but he had two things Bolsonaro doesn't have: a strong, well-organized political party, and a well-functioning economy (at least until the start of the pandemic)," he added.

Santoro argued that "since the beginning of the pandemic, the president has lost the support of important portions of the electorate, mainly in the middle and upper classes. He now faces a growing distrust from entrepreneurs over their efforts to control fuel prices and for their interventions in the management of Petrobras and Banco do Brasil."

"However, he maintains strong support among evangelicals, the military and has made important political agreements in Congress with traditional parties that guarantee him some protection against political judgment," he said.

Bolsonaro built a framework of alliances that seem solid given the seriousness of the health situation, but as analysts in Brazil often say, a president's future is defined by popular opinion, which is the only thing capable of triggering a political judgment that can change the system of relationships. At this point, what we know is that that the pandemic situation changes in the blink of an eye.