Argentina
Cristina Kirchner withdrew her candidacy to facilitate an agreement within Peronism to defeat Macri
She announced that she would go from presidential candidate to vice-president of her former chief of staff, Alberto Fernández, a center-winged Peronist, which could facilitate agreements with Sergio Massa and the governors.

Cristina Kirchner announced that she wouldn't be a presidential candidate just 48 hours after the Supreme Court decided that next Tuesday she must face her first hearing for corruption. But she did it with a surprising maneuver, with implications still difficult to measure, by running as the vice-presidential candidate of her former chief of staff, Alberto Fernández.

The decision caught the entire political system by surprise, who expected her to compete for a third term as president. Even Macri's administration found out through Youtube that she wouldn't be a candidate.

They were shocked at the Casa Rosada when they learned about the news that fully impacted the polarization strategy that Marcos Peña and Jaime Durán Barba designed against Cristina to secure Macri's reelection.

"If they go to some primaries with all of Peronism, they'll wipe us out," the Administration assured LPO. And they warn that those primaries, that Cristina herself highlights in her video, are feasible.

"This is the ticket for the 40-30," said some other sources from the Administration. They believe, in that sense, that Cristina declined her candidacy to favor a triumph for Peronism in the first round of elections, after months and months of speculations about what would happen in a runoff between her and Macri.

The immediate reaction by the Administration was to construe Alberto Fernández as a "dreadful" candidate, more than anything because of the abysmal difference with regards to social knowledge between him and Macri and Cristina.

But the colder analysis didn't tarry. At the Casa Rosada they admitted that the fear isn't because of Alberto Fernández himself, but because of the trouble his candidacy could lead to, especially because of Cristina's renunciation.

A decision by Argentina's Supreme Court signals the rise of Cristina Kirchner

"If the Peronists unite and all compete together in the primaries, they'll wipe us out," the Administration assured LPO. "This is the ticket for the 40-30," added the sources. According to the Argentine Constitution, with those percentages a runoff would not be necessary. That's why the Administration believes Cristina declined her candidacy to favor a triumph for Peronism in the first round of elections, after months and months of speculations about what would happen in a runoff between her and Macri.

"I've asked Alberto Fernández to lead a team that includes both of us, him as the presidential candidate, and me as the vice-presidential candidate," she affirmed in a video where she recognized that she and her former official "had their differences," but highlighted, "I've known him for 20 years, and he was the chief of staff during the entire Kirchner presidency. I've seen him decide, agree upon, and search always for the greater breadth of the government."

Cristina Kirchner withdrew her candidacy to facilitate an agreement within Peronism to defeat Macri

The former chief of staff was a prominent figure -but not the only one- in the failed negotiation with the Supreme Court to suspend Cristina's first hearing, which ended up crashing against the wall of the de facto powers, who by reversing the decision of the highest court gave Cristina a small sample of what could await her in a third term.

In the video Cristina appeared to evoke the narratives and esthetics of other dramatic instances in Peronism, like Evita's renunciation, with her hurt tone and by conveying a vital predicament that matches a similar situation in the country. But it also resembles more Machiavellian moves within that movement like that transition ticket the weak Héctor Campora led in the seventies to govern for a brief time and then turn over the power to Perón.

The conditioning of the de facto powers, especially from the United States, and its impact on the very complicated economic situation that the next president will have to face pervades the announcement. "The present world, and Latin America in particular, have changed for the worse. We are in critical times regarding commercial, technological, military and political disputes. We Argentines need to have enough intelligence and practical vision so that this worldwide dispute doesn't drag us into more dependency and poverty," she argued in a very significant section of her message.

Cristina had been sending rapprochement messages to Trump, who nonetheless did not hesitate to personally involve himself in backing Macri's reelection. A stance that is backed in the region by the open support of the Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, the White House's most important ally in Latin America. Bolsonaro directly campaigned against the former president, who he questioned in two public statements, the last one being from the United States alongside George W. Bush, the former Republican president. It couldn't be any clearer.

Alberto Fernández always was one of the Kirchnerist officials closest to the United States embassy, and for weeks he was regularly visiting his powerful ties to convey the idea of a rational and moderate Cristina. It is yet to be seen if the move of crowning him as president and placing herself in second place in the line of succession will accomplish defusing those apprehensions.

The decision also facilitates agreements within Peronism, especially with Sergio Massa, an obsession for Kirchnerism for the last few weeks. The issue is that the Tigre native has around 10 points that are vital to assure the return of Peronism to power. "This very much favors the possibility of an agreement," it was confirmed to LPO from Massa's ranks.

Alberto Fernández worked with Sergio Massa and always maintained an open dialogue. In more than a few statements he distinguished him as the only Peronist leader with his own votes outside of Cristina.

The decision facilitates agreements within Peronism, especially with Sergio Massa, an obsession for Kirchnerism for the last few weeks. The issue is that the Tigre native has around 10 points that are vital to assure the return of Peronism to power.

Cristina was very clear in her announcement that the ticket that will join her to her former chief of staff will be present for the primaries, that is, she is leaving the door open to joining a broad in-house ticket with the league of Peronist governors based around the Federal Alternative, who up until now resisted competing with her.

The first person to talk as soon as the decision was known was Massa himself, who celebrated the move and asked to move forward in an agreement to defeat Macri in the presidential election in October.

"It seems to me that there is an understanding that the split scenario is a scenario that hurts Argentina, and that Argentina needs to get out of the rift. I think that the enormous challenge we have is to construct a new majority and win against the current administration," he told the press.

Massa's statement also interpellates Macri, who has been resisting the pressures from his own allies in Cambiemos to decline his presidential candidacy in favor of María Eugenia Vidal. Cristina's decision leaves Macri faced with the dilemma of showing himself as less generous than her before the country.

In the talks that he's had these last few days with different figures in power, Massa always repeated a very clear message, "My objective is that Macri is not reelected."

Now Cristina's decision opens the possibility of an open primary, or an agreement that could have an infinite amount of variants from here to the deadline for ballots scheduled for July 22nd.


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