For thirty years Chile was known as a rather boring country, governed by a certain consensus. The transition to democracy was considered an example, and democratic consolidation and economic governance led to the most successful thirty years in the country's history. But the tranquility had a price, which began to be charged on October 18, 2019. Since then, the country has experienced a strong conflict, which was only managed to channel in a constituent process, agreed by the political forces. With the plebiscite of last September 4, that process came to an end, and once again, a way to return to being a boring country is sought.

The problem is that almost three years after the social outburst, and after a year of work on a Constitutional Convention, Chilean citizens rejected the proposal. Although the polls indicated that as a possible result, the size of the defeat - 61.9% vs. 38.1%, with 85% participation - was a shock to the political system, and specially to the government of Gabriel Boric.

According to the rules that launched the process, through a constitutional reform approved at the beginning of 2020, rejection means that the process is over and the current Constitution remains. Politically, however, this does not seem feasible. Chilean society has known how to discern between wanting a new constitution but rejecting a bad proposal. More than a emphatic `no', the result of the plebiscite was a `not this one'.

In August, an Ipsos poll found that 78% of those surveyed thought that the current Constitution should be modified. At the same time, only 15% thought another convention should be called. The preferred option is a commission of experts. Despite the fact that 41% of those surveyed would choose this mechanism, there is a vociferous minority that would question the legitimacy of it.

In fact, some of this can already be seen on the streets. Last week a growing cycle of protest and violence, mainly around some public high schools and in subway stations, has been seen. Many of those arrested are minors. Pedestrians who try to reason with the protesters are attacked. As in the past, neither the police nor the government seem to have the intelligence to prevent ex ante, or the capacity or will to stop ex post. The crisis of legitimacy of institutions continues to affect their power to impose order, a problem that seems to have been amplified by the result of the referendum.

An Ipsos poll in August found that 78% of those surveyed thought that the current Constitution should be modified. At the same time, only 15% thought another convention should be called. The preferred option is a commission of experts.

It is a bit early to know if we are on the verge of another social outburst, but the chance of it is a concern for the government. Let's remember that, not long ago, many of the current leaders, including the President, publicly expressed their support for the protests in the subway in October 2019, the prelude to the social outburst. But now it is up to them to navigate the waters to not only try to return to the constitutional path, but to advance with the reform agenda in issues such as health and pensions. As long as a minority refuses to accept the results, it will be difficult to make progress with the legislative or constitutional agenda.

It is true that intense negotiations have begun between the political parties to seek a path towards a new constitutional process. But the result of the plebiscite has given a new air to the opposition, which a few weeks ago expressed its willingness to consider the continuation of the constitutional work. However, its commitment is uncertain now. The protests, supposedly aimed at pressuring the political authorities to reach an agreement, do the opposite, precisely because it is not 2019.

"These are decisive days, which will determine (or not) an outburst, if there will be another constitutional process, and if President Boric will become, six months after the start of his government, a lame duck."

Not only the political conditions are different, but the economic ones as well. Unlike 2019, the country is on the verge of a recession, hit by rising unemployment, rising debt, and inflation rates not seen in three decades (in part a consequence of the monetary injection - successive withdrawals of pension funds, thanks, again, to the support of those who govern today).

These are decisive days, which will determine (or not) an outburst, if there will be another constitutional process, and if President Boric will become, six months after the start of his government, a lame duck. It does not have to be this way. Boric has personal and political skills that Sebastián Piñera lacked and a widespread consensus that a new constitution is necessary.

It is said that only Nixon - a president with strong anti-communist credentials - was able to establish diplomatic relations with the Popular Republic of China. Perhaps Boric has the political resources to end the protests and violence, not to stop popular expression, but to defend it in its electoral version. And so, start to return to being a boring country.