California
California Governor sees Latino support slip as recall election looms
The number of California Latinos who favor recalling Governor Newsom has grown over time.

Latinos are rapidly emerging as a key factor in the potential recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom, with some polls showing his report rapidly eroding among members of the community.

According to a newly released poll from California Politics and Emerson College conducted between July 30 and August 1, 46% of respondents are in favor of Newsom's recall, with 48% of voters against it.

The poll also shows that 54% of respondents said that they would vote to recall the Governor. The statistics show that they are the only racial group to favor the move, with a majority of African American and Asian-American voters favoring keeping him in office.

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The statistics show that support for the Governor has eroded over time with Latinos. A separate poll conducted in March by California-based Probolsky Research showed that 52.5% of likely voters would be against the recall, with only 34.6% saying they would be in favor at the time.

I'm sure there will be some Spanish-language election related messaging, and I'm sure there'll be targeted, English-language Latino outreach

In an interview with LPO, Probolsky Research president Adam Probolsky said that most polls "seem to be trending towards greater levels of support for the recall, and significant Latino support, although not necessarily the level of actual having a successful recall."

In his remarks, Probolsky said that there is no grievance that Latinos in California have against Newsom.

"Latinos in California are just like their neighbors who are experiencing frustration over what's happening with their kids in schools, what happened during the pandemic and experiencing challenges with the economy. Not necessarily with jobs, but with how the economy has recovered," he said. "Everyone picks their issue, whether it be gas prices or mask mandates, certain kind of job going away and having to retrain for another job."

Republicans push "working-class" message to reach Latino communities

"Everyone has got their little issue or big issue," Probolsky added. "That's kind of the way this works."

From left, Republican candidates for California Governor John Cox, Kevin Faulconer, Kevin Kiley and Doug Ose participate in a debate at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library Wednesday in Yorba Linda, Calif. California Gov. Gavin Newsom faces a Sept. 14 recall election that could remove him from office. 

In July, California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis set the recall election that threatens to topple Newsom from office for September 14.

Probolsky, for his part, noted that for the moment, there's been no "specific drive" towards earning the support of Latinos for or against the recall.

"But, for example, there was signature gathering in Los Angeles, and you're going to find a lot of Latinos, but I don't think there was a specific focus on that and now we're a little more than a month out from the election," he said. "I'm sure there will be some Spanish-language election related messaging, and I'm sure there'll be targeted, English-language Latino outreach. But it takes a lot of money to campaign throughout the state."

Latinos in California are just like their neighbors who are experiencing frustration over what's happening with their kids in schools, what happened during the pandemic and experiencing challenges with the economy

For the pro-recall campaign, Probolsky said he expected they'd "bank" on the "general feeling that change is a good thing."

Probolsky believes that - as of today - the recall campaign would fail.

"I think there's also a trend toward a greater level of support that we should really watch," he added. "I just don't think it does."

In an interview with The Atlantic, Reverend Samuel Rodriguez, the head of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, said that he was surprised that more Republicans haven't done more to push the recall among Latino voters.

"We are a people of social media," he said. "Republicans need to permeate Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and Twitter with content in Spanish, so you can have an impact on both Spanish and English speakers." 

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