Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is considering banning the importation of transgenic corn. The news was announced by Victor Toledo, former head of the Secretariat of the Environment, and a staunch critic of genetically modified foods.

The way this decision of profound economic impact was announced was, to say the least, unusual. Toledo anticipated that a presidential decree banning transgenic corn and the glyphosate herbicide (in this case in a gradual process) would be published in the next few days, through an official video filmed at the National Palace, in which he read in front of López Obrador and his successor, María Luisa Albores, in a monochord manner the "personal" and health reasons that led him to leave office.

That such a scene, and in the presence of the President, he anticipated a transcendent decision of the head of state, seemed to indicate that perhaps the measure was part of an agreement to cover up his departure without scandals.

However, the decision could generate a political and commercial conflict with Donald Trump and other corn-producing countries such as Argentina, which had been negotiating hard to increase the export of this grain to Mexico.

Specialists maintain that banning transgenic corn would bring shortages of staple food and price increases. They consider the decision unfeasible, beyond the historical, doctrinaire, and environmentalist vision that prevails in the government.

LPO consulted with various sources in the sector to analyze the viability of the policy. The specialists' shared opinion is that it would be impracticable and detrimental to the country's interests. Mexico imports around 20 million tons of corn from the United States each year (95% of its total purchases). All the cereal produced in the United States is genetically modified.

"Adopting such a measure would bring about a shortage of basic foodstuff and, therefore, an increase in prices. It is not viable beyond a historical, doctrinaire, and environmentalist vision that prevails in the government," said one of the sources consulted.

Former Secretary of the Environment, Victor Toledo.

Corn is Mexico's main agricultural crop and is also the main food source for its more than 126 million inhabitants. Tortillas made from this cereal are the country's most popular product.

A few days ago, López Obrador gave indications of what might be the decree banning transgenic corn. "We are not going to destroy our territory. The most important thing is life, the health of the people and we must take that into consideration," he said.

The impact of suspending the purchase of GM corn among U.S. farmers would be devastating. And this is an important part of Donald Trump's electoral base, which is fighting hard vote by vote to get his reelection. Hence, if the decision is confirmed, retaliation is difficult to estimate.

As for Argentina, one of López Obrador's strongest allies in the region, the decision would also mean a bucket of cold water for President Alberto Fernández. The South American country is currently the third-largest corn exporter in the world. Last year it exported a historic record of 36 million tons, a figure 55% higher than that recorded in 2018 and up to 75% higher than the average of the last five years.

In 2020, private estimates indicate that Argentine corn exports will generate revenues of more than 5.4 billion dollars. This is 17% of the total settlement of agro-industrial shipments, only behind the soybean industry.

Although Argentine corn exports to Mexico are not significant, in recent years talks have begun to increase shipments. In 2019, Argentine corn exports to Mexico reached 3,000 tons for an amount close to 1.3 million dollars. In the period January-July of this year, meanwhile, 1,500 tons were exported.