The fears of the market were fulfilled: in 2019 the Mexican economy had its first contraction in a decade by falling 0.1% over the previous year, according to the timely estimate of the National Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics (INEGI), reported on Thursday.

The fall of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) responds to the "crisis", as economic specialists call it, in industry and the slowdown in the service sector, which has a greater impact on the economy. In the first case it was a 1.7% decline and the second variation was 0.5%, both compared to its performance throughout 2018.

AMLO dismissed Trump's statement about the wall: "It's election time in the U.S."

While the Lopez Obrador administration was betting that the economy would rebound in the final quarter of last year with the announcement of the infrastructure plan and after advancing some public contracts, the truth is that during the last quarter the economy remained clearly stagnant: agricultural activities had a decline of 0.9%, 1% industry and services showed a variation of just 0.3%, both in contrast to the previous quarter.

Despite these figures, in Palacio Nacional optimism persists, because when questioned about it, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador acknowledged that it was expected but added: "The parameters to measure welfare in Mexico are changing".

Even allowing himself the joke, he added with laughter that "he has other data". With this he affirmed that he can say that there is well-being: "It may be that there is no growth, but there is development and there is well-being, which are different".

AMLO insisted on being critical of the fact that during the "neoliberal period" other parameters were used to measure development, which he said he did not "care much about". Furthermore, he justified that it is not easy to change the measurements after years of the same economic model.

He said he is calm because now there is more purchasing power, there is no consumer crisis and there is more possibility of distributing resources among poor people.

This discourse corresponds to the shift that he took in the middle of last year, after realizing that the economy would not reach 2% growth, as he had promised in the first months of his term, when he was even betting against the market. Then, talking about development and welfare became essential when addressing the economy.

Foreign Secretary Ebrard attended USMCA signing in Washington: "A new phase begins"

AMLO said that he was sure that there would be growth. He recalled that yesterday the Cabinet for Economic Growth was integrated, headed by his Chief of Staff, mogul Alfonso Romo. The government also hopes that the implementation of the USMCA will allow for more investment.

This is key for the market. Much will depend on the administration's ability this year to provide more certainty for investment, which would be expected after the first year, which naturally means a learning curve for any new government.

The main focus remains on the certainties it can offer in the energy sector, where the private sector continues to push for participation in oil rounds and farmouts, while the government insists on strengthening state-owned companies and offering private sector participation only in services.

Investors are still waiting for the energy infrastructure plan, which according to Romo is already being analyzed after receiving 137 projects from the private sector. The expectation is that in February it will be presented and perhaps clear up the strong doubts that persist.

By 2020, there are also doubts that the government will achieve 2% growth; in fact, the first cuts in the market anticipate that it could be less than 1%, although this would not be a negative figure.