After meeting with top business executives last Tuesday at the National Palace, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has an almost complete draft of the projects that will comprise his Infrastructure Plan. Some minor details are still missing, as he stated on Wednesday morning, but the bulk of this program to reactivate the economy already has many definitions.

The Infrastructure Plan is proposed as "an open and dynamic space between the government and the private sector to reactivate the economy". In this respect, coordination with high-ranking business executives would be permanent, in order to be able to add new projects, as bureaucratic but also technical issues are unlocked.

The draft that will be presented next Tuesday, to which LPO had exclusive access, has 62 construction projects for an initial total investment of $258 billion pesos, or about 14 billion dollars. All types of contracts and associations will be used: concessions, mixed projects, PPPs, service contracts and Pidiregas type.

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Most of the projects are focused on "hard" infrastructure, i.e. the "iron" core of the economy. AMLO not only seeks to reactivate the construction industry - a sector that is complaining of economic stagnation - but also to encourage private investors to reinvest in their respective production plants, knowing that there will be better roads, airports and ports to move their goods.

The first 15 projects of the Infrastructure Plan are already established. They are estimated to start two months after the presentation of the plan. That is, between January and February 2020. They add up to a total estimated investment of $158 billion pesos, or about 8 billion dollars.

But which are the specific projects? The first two are focused on refineries, an almost obsession of López Obrador. The Government wants to complete the Tula coking plant ($40 billion) and rehabilitate the Cadereyta plant ($17 billion). 

 Arturo Herrera, Secretary of the Treasure. 

Cuartoscuro

The third project is dedicated to natural gas transportation. It involves expanding the pipeline that connects the Nuevo Pemex Gas Processing Complex to the Mayakán pipeline in Macuspana, on AMLO's home state of Tabasco. There would be an investment of $1 billion pesos.

There are also two seaport projects for 260 million pesos. First, the expansion of the fertilizer storage warehouse in the port administration of Topolobampo by 219 million pesos. Also a project - a large maneuver yard - in the specialized automobile terminal in Lazaro Cardenas for 41 million pesos.

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Several of these 15 projects will include works on airports, which would add up to a total investment of $14,152 million pesos. Terminals, check-in baggage systems, and commercial platforms will be expanded, and filming will be rehabilitated at the terminals of Cancun ($7,451 million), Merida ($2,471), Oaxaca ($948 million), Villahermosa ($832 million), Veracruz ($730 million), Huatulco ($716 million), Cozumel ($409 million), Chihuahua ($337 million) and Minatitlán ($257 million).

Finally, the bulk of the investment for this first segment comes from the contributions of telecommunications companies, which would disburse $86.161 million for the expansion of both land and mobile coverage, in addition to investing in technological projects such as data centers, "cloud" data, and other connectivity tools. Perhaps a friendly gesture from telecom mogul Carlos Slim, who strives to revive his friendship with AMLO.

The medium term

López Obrador already has 33 other infrastructure projects in his hands that could also begin in 2020, provided that they manage to resolve their "factibilities". If achieved, this second segment of works would add just over $78 billion pesos in investments.

Once again, small airport works appear throughout the country: Guadalajara leads the largest investment with $10.543 billion. There will also be works in Monterrey ($2,238), Guanajuato ($599 million), Aguascalientes ($438 million), Torreon ($389 million), Manzanillo ($351 million), Tampico ($300 million) and Tapachula ($195 million).

The highway projects have an estimated investment of $17,084 million pesos. For the MRO packages (Maintainer, Rehabilitator, Operator) of the northeastern and southeastern highways the investment will be $6,924 million. It remains to be determined, in consultation with the Secretariat of Transportation (SCT), which sections are to be renovated.

Good news for Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum: she would have $4.4 billion pesos for road construction. This executive project is yet to be approved by the city.

There will also be room for seven small railway projects, with a total investment of $3,151 million. The most robust project will be a $2.5 billion beltway in Celaya, Guanajuato, although the concession holder must present an evaluation of economic profitability.

Additional harbor projects would be activated in 2020 if the typical red tape is successfully overcome. There are $6,117 million that would be distributed in projects for the Lazaro Cardenas, Tuxpan, Tampico, Dos Bocas and Progreso ports.

The most significant figure of AMLO's Infrastructure Plan is that it includes the construction of only one hospital, which is actually the replacement of the existing Dr. Francisco Galindo Chávez General Hospital in Torreón, Coahuila. There, $1,312 million pesos will be invested under the Public Private Association (APP) model.

Lastly, there are four projects in the energy sector. The most important will be the construction of a 1,320 MW combined cycle power plant. The work will be carried out by Energía de Celaya SA de CV, and nearly $18 billion will be invested. The permits from the National Energy Control Center and Conagua are still pending.

Smaller plants will also be built in Durango, Aguascalientes and Guadalajara, which together will generate 611 MW. This $11.24 billion investment also requires a CENACE interconnection permit.

Long term

The 2021 projects were decided in the talks between the government and the industrialists. So far, only 14 projects worth $21.356 billion pesos, or about $14 million dollars, have been submitted. Of those, the most interesting project is the expansion of the Cuautitlán-Huehuehuetoca suburban train, in the State of Mexico, for $5,840 million.