Argentina
Macri wants to withdraw Lavagna, Gómez Centurión and Espert fearing they will steal votes away from him
The administration fears closing too low in the primaries and causing a blow to the markets. Radical Vice President bets on seducing disenchanted voters.

Just like in 2017, when they celebrated a non-existent win against Cristina Kirchner in the primaries, the Macri administration now wants to avoid a landslide defeat for the president in the upcoming August election, which would complicate the end of his term.

The first objective is to pull out of the race three candidates that could be able to seduce Cambiemos disenchanted voters: Roberto Lavagna, Juan José Gómez Centurión and José Luis Espert.

Although the latter two would seem insignificant, they are both front runners in the official polls. "With three points between these two, two points are taken from Macri, because only one voting electorate is highlighted", they explain.

Their own speeches confirm this thesis: the former Chief of Customs Gómez Centurión presents himself as an admirer of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. He is vocal against abortion and sexual education; whereas the ultraliberal economist travels across the country asking to adjust "politics and unions" in a way Cambiemos did not dare to.

Besides, Vidal would also lose votes in her hand to hand confrontation with Axel Kicillof, Cristina's former finance minister, forcing her to negotiate a deal with Sergio Massa that never came to be.

Lavagna does the most harm: the most worrying predictions in the Casa Rosada estimate that he can steal between 4 and 6 points from Macri, considering the voters from large cities who supported Cambiemos in 2015. These voters suffered the loss of purchasing power, but they are still anti Kirchner.

"It is a vote that Macri would take back in a second round, but we cannot give it away in August and be left behind by the two Fernández", leaders of Cambiemos have admitted. Oddities from the Argentinean electoral system: without solid political fronts, which can settle candidacies during the caucuses, the August primaries have become a national poll to place figures in the public eye.

A defeat for Macri and Vidal then can raise the temperature in the financial stock markets, which are inclined to deliver messages after the primaries. Cristina knew this in September 2011, when she saw the dollar price go up after a landslide victory and to which she reacted with an exchange block that ruined her second term.

Macri wants to withdraw Lavagna, Gómez Centurión and Espert fearing they will steal votes away from him

In 2017, more than one official spokesperson admitted that celebrating the fake triumph confused the financial operators, thus facilitating Federico Sturzenegger to renew the Lebacs, the white little papers the Central Bank sold by the millions to control inflation, to no avail.

The Casa Rosada celebrated as a triumph of their own the split between Lavagna and Sergio Massa and Juan Manuel Urtubey. This incident, however, did not take him from the campaign trail but indented his political armor, already crippled when most Peronist governors began supporting Alberto Fernández. Even from those who, a few months before, had received him, like Sergio Uñac, from San Juan.

"Urtubey steals less votes from Macri, so will Massa from Cristina, therefore it is still an open question. Lavagna fares better in our constituency", Cambiemos electoral operators said to LPO.

To fade out the economist, Peña looks to complete his ticket with a radical, who might be a woman like Vidal. "That's the only way to pass through Jaime Durán Barba's filter", people close to him joke.

With such a couple he is trying to make radicals forget the idea of an internal election against Macri, and also to strengthen his reelection, and not to play with two fronts, as some members of the party have speculated.

In fact, during the Convention a sector proposed to support Lavagna. Alfredo Cornejo imposed a resolution that guarantees Cambiemos' continuity, but in the final draft of the text he left the door open to the possibility of adding legislative lists "to every Presidential and Vice Presidential pre-candidate list, according to applicable legislation". He never explained fully what the text is after, though. 

Publicar un comentario
Para enviar su comentario debe confirmar que ha leido y aceptado el reglamento de terminos y condiciones de LPO
Comentarios
Los comentarios publicados son de exclusiva responsabilidad de sus autores y las consecuencias derivadas de ellas pueden ser pasibles de las sanciones legales que correspondan. Aquel usuario que incluya en sus mensajes algun comentario violatorio del reglamento de terminos y condiciones será eliminado e inhabilitado para volver a comentar.
  • 1
    masita vieja y rancia
    12/06/19
    17:02
    My dog is black, my cat is blue, and the kakinos are sclaves of your owners
    Responder
Más de English

The Centrao has already won‎

Por Marco Bastos
The Centrão is the bloc of conservative parties that has dominated Brazilian politics since the return to democracy in 1989. That bloc has been the hinge of the Brazilian political system, supporting all the Presidents of the young Brazilian democracy - both those on the left and on the right.‎
The LIBRE Initiative Believes Latinos will Define the Future of US Politics

The LIBRE Initiative Believes Latinos will Define the Future of US Politics

Por Lila Abed (Washington DC)
"I think that Governor DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio will be reelected in 2022,", says Director of Public Affairs at The LIBRE Initiative, César Grajales.
Democrats should 'tell authentic stories' to reach Latinos, says former Bernie Sanders advisor

Democrats should 'tell authentic stories' to reach Latinos, says former Bernie Sanders advisor

Por B. Debusmann (Washington DC)
Junelle Cavero Harnal, a former advisor to Bernie Sanders and Head of Political at H Code, believes that an effort to explain why policies matter to Latino households will help the Democrats gain their support in upcoming elections.
"Latinos were undercounted in the Census," says expert.

"Latinos were undercounted in the Census," says expert.

Por Lila Abed (Washington DC)
"The Arizona legislature is trying to suppress the Latino vote because they see the trends that Latinos continue to gain more numbers and therefore more political clout," Joseph Garcia, Director of Public Affairs and International Relations at Chicanos Por La Causa (CPLC) .
Time to end 'dynastic politics' in the Bronx, council candidate says

Time to end 'dynastic politics' in the Bronx, council candidate says

Por B. Debusmann (Washington DC)
Marcos Sierra says that ending political dynasties from affluent areas of the borough will help attract new Latino and African American voters.
Meet Baltimore's first - and only - Latina city councilperson

Meet Baltimore's first - and only - Latina city councilperson

Por B. Debusmann (Washington DC)
Councilwoman Odette Ramos believes that the city's growing Latino population will become increasingly active in local politics.