"I would be surprised if Biden avoids a defeat now, although he can recover in two years"
Daniel Kerner is a political scientist and director of Eurasia Group for Latin America. He was born in Argentina, but he has lived in Washington for more than 20 years. In an exclusive interview with LPO, he says that the country is experiencing a very strong polarization scenario and that the candidates for 2024 will again be Biden and Trump.
He affirms that the Democratic left, read AOC or Bernie Sanders, would like to play inside the Party. "The problem is that a natural Democratic left candidate may not be competitive against Trump. They will not go that way. If Trump is the candidate, he will order the Democratic internal," Kerner says.
Finally, the Biden government had good news on the economic front with inflation given way...
Inflation data still has to do with distortions generated by the pandemic, the response of the governments and the war in Ukraine. This generates uncertainty as to how it will evolve since it is not traditional inflation. That makes everyone feel unsure about where this is all going. Second, I have the feeling that within this uncertainty you can distinguish: in the short term, despite slowing down, the risks to the economy are a lot. The monetary policy response came late and has a way to go. It might end in a recession.
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In any case, beyond the general perception, the economy is not so bad. Is this something the Biden administration does not know how to capitalize on?
The economy is quite strong and unemployment is low. The fiscal boost from the climate change package measures will help. There do not seem to be any risks on the financial side, as individuals and companies do not have debts. Of course the market adjustment for higher rates and the return to normality, but the essentials are strong. There are important savings and a level of investment in technology similar to those of the '90s, with changes that will led to an improvement in productivity. However, there is uncertainty with the great risks we see globally, with the pandemic and China, and what happens with the war in Ukraine. We think that the price tensions will not be solve in the short term.
So it would not be surprising that in November the government will not have enough to retain a house of Congress.
Biden has a very low approval rating. It is not unusual because the United States is a very polarized country. Second, the inflation is high and people are not accustomed to it. And the governments of the day lose the mid-term elections, except for something unusual that happens, it is not uncommon for them to lose. Is it enough for Biden to turn things around due to recent victories? I would say that with the polarization and inflation we have, I would be surprised if he can avoid a defeat now. Does a defeat now mean a defeat in 2 years? No, it can be much better then.
Could it be key if the government loses control of both houses and the Republicans impose their agenda for 2024?
In general, it is difficult for the government to do anything, and if they lose, the remaining two years are going to be more difficult. The question is whether there is an election in which a party does not recognize the results, as it happened with Trump. There is so much polarization in the elections that this is a risk, not in November, but for the next presidential elections.
You talk about polarization and many analysts say that it has deepened in the last years.
The crack is deeper than in Argentina, for example. Because here in the United States it is political, geographical, cultural. The polarization that began in the ‘60s-'70s is even deeper now. Some see the other as an enemy to their lifestyle. There are almost no channels of dialogue between one and the other. It is not a Trump issue, it is stronger and very difficult to resolve.
It is what we saw with Trump and Biden, that it was defined with few votes. It goes beyond democracy: if one thinks that the other is the enemy of the lifestyle, people's reaction will be unpredictable.
Is a Trump-Biden revival unavoidable in 2024, or are there alternatives among both, Democrats and Republicans?
A third option may appear within each party, but I think it will probably end in a Biden-Trump alternative. The former president is very strong within the Republican Party, and we are going to see all kinds of accusations, including the one we are witnessing from the FBI. All this is going to weaken him, but since he polarizes so much, it will not be enough. He will run and win the primary. But it is going to be difficult for him to win a national election.
With good health, and since there is no alternative within the Democrats, Biden will run. Some of his achievements will be seen over time. There is discomfort within the Democratic left about what needs to be done, they say that what was done is not enough. That may open more within the party, but the successor is not known. The average registered voter is not in the usual position. The Democrat has moved himself/herself to the left and the Republican to the right. People united against Trump was something good for Biden.
Is there room for the Democratic left to gain weight in the internal election?
It is hard for me to visualize Alexandria Ocasio Cortez winning the internal. Bernie Sanders could be... The problem I see is that a natural left Democratic candidate may not be competitive against Trump. They will not go that way. If Trump is the candidate, he will order the Democratic internal.