The defeated

Journalism is there to inform about events. Politicians build their careers on the back of an unusual talent to anticipate movements, to be at the head of the vanguard. That way, they build their leadership, and that's also how exceptional artists rise. They don't follow reality from behind; they pull it from ahead.

And perhaps underneath that longing and anticipation in Mexico's red circle, a nervous, almost desperate game has begun to know how a vote that has not yet begun will finish. The chatter in the national executive committees of the various parties are, at the moment, notably similar.

This election will, before anything, measure the potency of the 4T against its adversaries. The mayorship of San Lazaro is the mother of all battles for Lopez Obrador, even above some gubernatorial ones, which he seems likely to lose.

Some of the Presidency's most important collaborators - who have already begun their move - explain that AMLO never had a fixation on Congress. In his view of power, parliaments don't appear as central actors in the transformation. "But he also won't give his adversaries one of the three powers, from which they could mine a second triennium," said one of the functionaries.

In Mexico's red circle, a nervous, almost desperate game has begun to know how a vote that has not yet begun will finish. The chatter in the national executive committees of the various parties are, at the moment, notably similar.

With this leadership, each governorship can mean the continuity or rupture of careers. That way, as if they were trapped in a marsh, the conversations are repeated obsessively. How to present the results so that they appear as victories? How many governorships guarantee the continuity of what is today headed by the CEN?

The case of Mario Delgado is paradigmatic. The process of defining the candidacies left very bruised doors inside. To the indelible stain left by her defense of Salgado Macedonio, one can add the discontent of various Morena supporters. Layda Sanasores blames him for not operating in Campeche, Raul Moron for not having defended Felix, Barborosa directly says that he doesn't know how to drive the party. That's to say nothing of the Pure Ones, for whom Delgado is an intruder.

The list is very long, and the majority of the angry are hoping for Delgado to stumble, a wish that has been growing over the last few months, leading Morena to have less than 12 new governorships in the bag to competently fight the majority of those entities.

On the accounts that are made by Delgado's team - which will then have to be confirmed on the day of the election - only Baja California, Nayarit and Sinaloa will be won comfortably. In Colima, Guerrero, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas, however, they have an interesting advantage, but not in the same category of the overwhelming victories in Chihuahua, Michoacán and Sonora that have closed in the last several weeks.

Marko Cortes has the same anxiety, and has made two great gambles on these elections. In Chihuahua, Maru Campos is fighting vote for vote against Morena's Juan Carlos Loera. Tere Jimenez, his other great gamble - for 2022 - and her dolphin in the mayor's office of Aguascalientes seem to have the advantage over Morena.

The dynamic of both plays is identical: Cortes launches against the outgoing governors, Javier Corral and Martin Orozco, for whom he blocked the succession. It's clear how the officials of the day will play this election. What will happen with Marko if these two gambles fail? Will he be able to wear the medal of Queretaro and Baja California Sur? Maybe for the television cameras, but not for his internal opponents.

Marko's nerves hide another novelty: Jorge Romero has shown himself to be very emboldened by these days. He argues that various of his bets can win in Mexico City. Will he be motivated to campaign against the eventual weakness of Cortes, a historic ally of the PAN? The one who will open fire is Felipe Calderon, who is convinced that Margarita is already leading District X of the city.

Cortes launches against the outgoing governors, Javier Corral and Martin Orozco, for whom he blocked the succession. It's clear how the officials of the day will play this election. What will happen with Marko if these two gambles fail?

In the offices of Alito there is no peace. Campeche was always the great objective to be able to maintain the leadership of the PRI. Or did the CEN not arrive with the argument that they knew how to operate in the territory? The polls show that their candidate is at least 4 points behind that of Morena and MC. On election day, will Miguel Riquelme have to displace the entire structure of the north in the process. Possible relief?

The Citizen's Movement will also have to take account. Somehow, Samuel Garcia is coming to break Enrique Alfaro's hegemony. Now there will be two orange governors, or maybe three, if Eliseo Fernandez manages to impose himself in Campeche. Everyone discounts that Dante Delgado will return rise to power as the loyalist of the balance.

With two of the eventual new governors, Clemente Castaneda will be one of the winners. But paradoxically, because of his proximity to Alfaro, he should support consensus with the new leaders of MC if he wants to be re-elected to the leadership.

In just a few days, with the votes counted, the narrative battle of the winners and the losers will begin. It is possible that this Sunday night there will be a unanimous temptation to celebrate. Whatever the case, the self-boiling of the parties will end up showing that the leadership ended up strengthened and will need relief. Because, at the end, for as much as they pull from in front, sometimes a capricious reality reveals itself.