Pathway to citizenship for 10 million undocumented would see $1.7 trillion added to US GDP

Creating a pathway to citizenship for the millions of undocumented immigrants in the United States would add $1.7 trillion and create over 438,000 jobs over the next 10 years, according to a new report from the Center for American Progressive (CAP), a progressive think-tank at the University of California - Davis.

A total of 10.2 million undocumented immigrants are estimated to be living and working across the country, who on average has lived in the US for 16 years. Polls have shown that a majority of Americans favor giving undocumented residents a pathway to citizenship.

In the report, CAP modeled four different scenarios in which Congress grants a pathway to citizenship to undocumented immigrants, undocumented immigrants working in essential occupations, ‘Dreamers' and those eligible for Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and a combination of Dreamers, those eligible for TPS and essential workers.

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The first scenario - in which 10.2 million illegal immigrants are granted citizenship - would see the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) go up by $1.7 trillion. A total of 438,800 jobs would be created.

Additionally, the average wage of those currently illegal immigrants would go up by $4,300 over a 5-year period. Over a 10-year year period, the average wages would be $14,000 higher, with all other American workers seeing annual wages go up by $700. 

A total of 10.2 million undocumented immigrants are estimated to be living and working across the country, who on average has lived in the US for 16 years

The second scenario, in which undocumented essential workers are given a pathway to citizenship, would see GDP go up by $989 billion over 10 years and create 203,200 new jobs. Over the next decade, immigrant's annual wages would rise by $11,800, with national wages going up by $300.

Enacting the American Dream and Promise Act - known as H.R. 6 - would see GDP go up $799 billion, with 285,400 additional jobs.

The last scenario, in which those eligible for H.R. 6 and undocumented essential workers are granted a pathway to citizenship, would see a total $1.5 trillion added to GDP and see 400,000 new jobs created.

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"This analysis considers only these direct economic benefits," the report notes. "The model does not capture the potentially large additional benefits to eligible immigrants' children in education, health and future productivity gains, as these effects would take place more than 10 years from implementation."

The report added that "creating a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is not only the right thing to do but would also be a substantial stimulus for the US economy."

"Legalization and a pathway to citizenship-which would raise wages for all workers, create hundreds of thousands of new jobs, and boost the GDP-is an investment in the country's infrastructure in and of itself," the report added. "As the United States continues to address the coronavirus pandemic and works toward a just and equitable recovery, Congress must consider these proposals."

President Biden's original immigration plan called for granting a pathway to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants, it is considered unlikely to be successful.

The House of Representatives have already passed a number of bills that would allow for a pathway for immigration for specific groups - such as Dreamers, those eligible for TPS and farmworkers.

Efforts to pass immigration reforms in the Senate, however, have proven less successful, with both H.R. 6 and the farmworker bill considered unlikely to have the level of bipartisan support necessary to overcome Republican resistance.