US intelligence forecast for Latin America: Polarization and Violence"
Latin America will "almost certainly" see hotspots of volatility over the coming year, including contested elections and violent protests, according to a newly released report from US intelligence agencies.
In the 27-page Annual Threat Assessment, US intelligence outlined a number of global and regional challenges it believes the world will face over the coming year, ranging from China's push for global power, provocative actions from Russia, Iran and North Korea, cyber threats and the economic, social and political impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In Latin America, the report noted that a number of presidential and legislative elections being held this year - such as in Honduras and Nicaragua - "are occurring amidst heavily polarized environments in which allegations of fraud probably will rise."
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"Public frustration is mounting over deep economic recessions following the Covid-19 pandemic, which is also compounding public concerns about crime and widespread official corruption," the report noted. "Colombia, Guatemala and Peru have witnessed protests during the pandemic."
"Already-high rates of crimes and narcotics trafficking probably will increase as poverty worsens and resources for police and judiciaries shrink, potentially fueling migration attempts to the United States.
The report singled out Venezuela as facing the greatest threat in the region, with the country's political and economic crisis "sustaining the outflow of Venezuelans into the rest of the region and adding strain to governments con tenting with some of the highest Covid-19 infection and death rates in the world."
The report also noted that the threat of transnational criminal organizations and drug traffickers will remain "at a critical level". It noted that Mexican drug traffickers continue to dominate smuggling into the United States and are likely to make progress producing high-quality fentanyl using chemical precursors obtained in Asia.
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"Traffickers temporarily slowed drug smuggling because of stricter controls along the US southwest border associated with the pandemic but have since resumed operations," it said.
The report also addressed the reasons for increased migration to the United States from other countries in the Western hemisphere.
"The combined effects of the pandemic and hurricanes, as well as perceived changes in US immigration policy and seasonal employment opportunities in the United States, are creating the economic and physical conditions for a resurgence in US-bound migration, especially if Covid-19 infection rates in the United States decline," the report noted.
"High crime rates and weak job markets remain primary push factors for US-bound migration from Central America because origin countries lack the capacity to address these challenges," it added.
Additionally, the report warned of increased Russian and China influence in the world and the region. In particular, US intelligence believes that "Russia has expanded its engagement with Venezuela, supported Cuba and used arm sales and energy agreements to try to expand access to markets and natural resources in Latin America."
At a global level, US intelligence believes the primary challenge over the next year will be the continued impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. In April, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the global economy would grow 6% this year and 4.4% in 2022. The global growth contraction for 2020 has been estimated at 3.3%.
"The effects on developing countries - especially those that rely heavily on remittances, tourism or oil exports - may be severe and longer lasting; many developing countries have already sought debt relief," it added.